Exit polls 2026: Bengal cliffhanger, Kerala Congress; status quo in Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry – Predictions Decoded

New Delhi: West Bengal may be on the cusp of a ‘Bolibottom’, with exit polls predicting a hung rally that could mark the end of Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year rule in the state. Most exit polls predicted a close race between the ruling Trinamool party congress (TMC) and bjp In West Bengal.If one pollster is to be believed, another big surprise could come from the South, where actor-politicians VijayTVK may end DMK-AIADMK duopoly tamil nadu Become the single largest political party. However, most other pollsters have given a clear advantage to the DMK-Congress alliance in the state.

In Assam, the BJP is expected to pull off a hat-trick of victories over the Congress, which continues to struggle in the northeastern state.In Kerala, the CPM-led vigilantes may be about to step down, marking the end of the country’s only left-wing government. exist pondicherryThe ruling NDA is likely to win a comprehensive victory over the Congress-DMK alliance and retain power.Exit polls released after polls closed in four states and one Union Territory (UT) on Wednesday revealed a picture of indecision, with entrenched incumbents, rising challengers and new entrants all likely to simultaneously influence the outcome if the exit poll data remains unchanged.Results are expected to be released on May 4, and the projections reflect continuity and attrition by region, highlighting how state-specific dynamics continue to define voter behavior.

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Bengal, bite your nails!

In West Bengal, the numbers point to one of the tightest contests in recent times.While individual exit polls vary, the broader trend points to a deeply polarized electorate with an almost even split between the TMC and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), weakening Mamata’s bastion in every possible way.One poll showed the two parties each holding about 145 seats in the 294-member parliament, with smaller parties and independents expected to gain only marginal seats.Such a forecast points not only to a competitive race but also to a possible tectonic shift in state politics.If exit polls are to be believed, the Bharatiya Janata Party, once a peripheral force in West Bengal, appears to have consolidated its position as the main challenger, undermining the dominance of the ruling TMC.At the same time, the TMC’s ability to hold parity across these projections suggests that the incumbent still enjoys significant grassroots support, particularly in key areas with high voter turnout.Voter turnout in both phases of Bengal’s polls hovered around 90%, the highest level since independence, reflecting strong voter participation.Participation was particularly high in districts such as Purbabadaman, Hooghly, Nadia and Howrah, suggesting that the electoral stakes are widely recognized by voters in each district. In hotly contested elections, high turnout often creates an additional level of unpredictability, making the final outcome more difficult to predict, although predictions were nearly even.

Any surprises in store for Tamil Nadu?

In Tamil Nadu, the election story is more nuanced, with Axis My India making bold predictions.Most exit polls show the DMK-led alliance under Chief Minister MK Stalin is expected to retain power, albeit with a reduced advantage compared to its 2021 performance.This will mark an important political moment in a country whose history has been characterized by two Dravidian majors alternating in power. Retaining power continuously would signal a level of stability and voter support that incumbents in Tamil Nadu often fail to achieve.However, the emergence of Tamilaga Vitri Kazhagam (TVK) led by actor-politician Vijay has brought new variables to the traditional bipolar competition.While most forecasts do not place TVK ahead of existing parties, they consistently show the party cutting into its existing vote base. Even conservative estimates suggest TVK could influence the outcome in multiple constituencies by redistributing votes, while more optimistic forecasts, such as those from Axis My India, point to a more damaging scenario in which the party could gain between 98 and 120 seats.If these predictions come true, Tamil Nadu may witness a fundamental reorganization of its political structure, moving away from the long-standing DMK-AIADMK duopoly towards a more competitive multipolar framework. Meanwhile, forecasts for the AIADMK point to a partial recovery but also highlight ongoing organizational and leadership challenges that may limit its ability to fully capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment.

Assam’s status?

In contrast, Assam appears to be moving towards political continuity. Exit polls from multiple agencies unanimously showed a resounding victory for the BJP under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.Opinion polls suggest the BJP is likely to win about 90 seats, a clear lead over the Congress, which is expected to hold on to around 30 seats, while other parties only account for a small portion of parliament.The projections reinforce the deep-rooted position of the BJP in the state, which has steadily expanded its organizational base and electoral clout in successive election cycles.For Congress, the numbers underscore ongoing structural challenges and evidence of recovery is limited despite attempts to refocus its campaign strategy. If the result is in line with exit poll predictions, it will mark the BJP’s third consecutive term in office, further cementing its dominance in the northeastern region.

Congress expected to win in Kerala

Kerala is probably the most complex scenario to analyze among the five games. Exit polls showed a close election between the Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front.While polls give the UDF a slight advantage with about 72 seats in the 140-member parliament, the LDF is expected to be close behind with about 63 seats, suggesting that this slim advantage may change depending on constituency-level changes.Meanwhile, varying forecasts from the likes of Axis MyIndia and PMARQ have highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the race in Kerala.While Axis My India says the UDF’s margin is wider, PMARQ predicts a majority for the ruling LDF, suggesting the final result is still there.This change reflects the unique electoral behavior of Kerala, where small fluctuations in vote share can lead to significant changes in seats due to the state’s highly competitive constituency landscape.The wider significance of the Kerala election is that it departs from historical patterns. The state has traditionally alternated between LDF and UDF, but LDF’s back-to-back victories in 2021 disrupted the cycle.The 2026 elections will therefore test whether this break with tradition is a long-term shift or a temporary departure. The LDF’s defeat will also have repercussions beyond the state, potentially eroding the Left’s national influence, with Kerala remaining its main stronghold.The campaign narrative in Kerala has also evolved over time, with the early stages dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, administrative disputes and local grievances, including recovery challenges following the Wayanad landslide and the Sabarimala gold heist controversy. These factors lead to a more issue-oriented competition, where voters’ decisions are likely to depend on governance performance and political alliances.

Puducherry signs NDA again?

In Puducherry, exit polls showed a clearer outcome relative to some larger states. The ruling NDA, jointly led by AINRC-BJP, is expected to retain power against the Congress-DMK alliance. Voter turnout reached nearly 89.83%, indicating high public participation and fierce competition in several constituencies.The entry of Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam also adds an extra layer of competition to Puducherry, especially in a constituency that has socio-political overlap with neighboring Tamil Nadu. However, despite the increased complexity, most forecasts suggest that the incumbent coalition retains a decisive advantage, reflecting continued support among voters or a fragmentation of the opposition vote base.Across all five games, some common themes emerged, according to exit polls.First, the role of new political entrants, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, highlights the fluidity of voter preferences and the potential for rapid transformation of the established political order. Second, varying degrees of incumbency advantage or disadvantage across states reflects the importance of local governance and regional narratives, especially in Bengal, where SIR plays a crucial role.As with all exit polls, these projections must be interpreted with caution. While they provide a sense of direction for electoral sentiment, they are not clear predictors of the final outcome. Changes in sampling, methodology, and last-mile voter behavior may produce results that differ from exit poll estimates.Vote counting is scheduled for May 4, and a final verdict will determine whether the trends suggested by these projections translated into actual election results, or whether voters were in for a surprise that exceeded the outcome expectations. Until then, the exit polls can serve as an informed but provisional outlook into the politically dynamic moments in state and union territory elections.