NEW DELHI: With polls drawing to a close in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry, focus is quietly turning towards the much-awaited exit polls. Exit polls, or opinion polls, are typically released half an hour after polls close and provide an early look at how people are likely to vote.Exit polls often determine who will win, but they are not always accurate. In past elections, some were right about the overall trend, while others were far from the final result.
The final round of assembly elections in the five states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry and West Bengal provides a useful benchmark.Here are the results predicted last time by the exit polls for the assembly polls in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal:
kerala
Exit polls in Kerala correctly predicted a victory for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) but underestimated its dominance. The poll average shows the LDF winning around 82 seats, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to win around 56 seats. However, the final results showed that the LDP did much better, gaining 99 seats, 17 more than predicted. On the other hand, UDF got only 41 seats which was less than 15 seats.
tamil nadu
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls roughly accurately predicted a win for the DMK-led alliance, although they slightly overestimated its size. On average DMK+ was predicted to have about 166 seats while the actual number was 159 seats. The AIADMK+ alliance was expected to win around 63 seats, but performed better than expected, winning 75 seats, 12 more than expected. While the predictions of the overall verdict were correct, the exit polls did not fully reflect the resilience of the AIADMK-led group.
assam
Assam emerged as one of the most accurately predicted elections. Exit polls expected the BJP-led NDA to win about 71 seats, while the Congress-led alliance was expected to win about 54 seats.The end result is very close to these estimates. The NDA won 75 seats, just 4 more than expected, while the opposition alliance won 50 seats, only slightly less than expected.
pondicherry
In Puducherry, the exit polls correctly predicted the NDA’s victory but overestimated its seat count. The average NDA was predicted to have about 21 seats, while the actual number was 16.UPA’s performance was more in line with expectations, winning 9 seats as expected. The biggest gap, however, comes from independents.
west bengal
West Bengal was the biggest anomaly, with exit polls failing to predict the scale and clarity of the task. Average polls suggest it is a closely contested race, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) expected to win about 155 seats and the BJP-led NDA 126 seats. In fact, the TMC secured a landslide victory of 216 seats, 61 more than expected, while the NDA bagged only 77 seats, 49 less than expected. The Congress-led alliance was expected to win around 12 seats but ended up with just one.
polling
Do you think the exit polls accurately reflected the election results?
Overall, exit poll accuracy across the five states was mixed. While states like Assam and Tamil Nadu are fairly accurate in terms of overall direction, there is a gap between Kerala and Puducherry in terms of estimated profits and seat share. West Bengal has clearly failed in its duty.
