Goldman Sachs made its predictions before the game after analyzing thousands of games since 1978.
Washington—— world cup Almost there.
Argentina is bidding for back-to-back titles, one of the most sought-after titles in football, a feat not achieved since Brazil in 1962.
A record 1,248 players will represent 48 countries at the World Cup, the first time the World Cup has expanded to include so many teams. The roster reflects a wide age range, with a gap of more than 25 years between the oldest and youngest players.
But who will win? Goldman Sachs Set predictions before the game starts.
Last week, the investment firm released odds and paths to victory for the World Cup. The company says it relies on each team’s historical performance data, relying on the Elo rating system, which was originally designed to rank chess players. It takes into account external factors such as scoring talent, team dynamics, and location.
The report was led by Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research. Since 1978, it has analyzed nearly 20,000 games.
Goldman Sachs said its forecast model showed Spain had a 26% chance of winning the tournament. Doing so would end a drought of more than 15 years in the European country, which last lifted the trophy in 2010 in South Africa.
Spain is bringing in some serious star power. Lamine Yamar, 18, is expected to lead Spain’s bid to win a second world title.
“We are all happy to start and try to get a good result in the game,” Spain coach Luis de la Fuente said ahead of the World Cup’s opening game on June 15.
Yamal is set to make his World Cup debut despite subsequent concerns over his participation Hamstring injury in April.
France follows with 19%, Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8% and England at 5%.
Spain is expected to win as it has the highest Elo ranking and is backed by “scoring talent and good momentum” going into the tournament, the company said. Argentina, on the other hand, lost their chances due to a “title slump” or what fans call the “World Cup Curse”, with the defending champions statistically underperforming in the following World Cups and sometimes failing to reach the group stages like they did after victories by Germany, Spain and Italy.
It’s not just Goldman Sachs who’s backing Spain, BetMGM sportsbook has Spain as World Cup favorites, followed by France, England, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal.
Goldman Sachs has tried predicting winners in previous contests but hasn’t quite stuck.
“Our predictions are not far off the bookmakers’ odds – apart from the lower probability of England winning – and our model has performed reasonably well at previous World Cups (for example, as measured by goal difference). Nonetheless, the model’s statistical power is still limited – not surprising given the inherent unpredictability of football,” the report said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
