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What we know and don’t know about a possible deal to end the war with Iran

Iran did not immediately confirm any deal, but with a ceasefire hanging in the balance, this could be the last chance to reach a compromise before fighting resumes.

CAIRO, Egypt — The United States and Iran appear to be on the verge of reaching an end deal war and open Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached an agreement on Thursday Interim agreement to extend ceasefire According to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, the three-month war will end in 60 days and begin a new round of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran did not immediately confirm any deal. Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed late Thursday that the two sides had reached a tentative agreement but said it was unclear whether President Donald Trump would ratify it.

The memorandum of understanding comes as the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be wavering. The latest outbreak of fighting occurred less than a day ago when Kuwait intercepted a missile fired from Iran, according to U.S. Central Command.

Here’s what we know and don’t know:

the war will end

Since the United States and Israel launched a war and launched attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, Tehran has insisted that any deal should focus on ending fighting on all fronts. That includes Lebanon, where the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group has been fighting Israel since the war broke out two days ago.

A fragile ceasefire has been in place since April 7, despite occasional drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates and some fighting in the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait announced that its air defenses intercepted missiles and drones on Thursday, but did not elaborate on the targets. Iran said it retaliated for an attack earlier this week by firing on U.S. bases in the Gulf country, which it did not name.

The exchange came after U.S. officials said late Wednesday that the U.S. military had launched more strikes against Iran, downing four one-way attack drones that posed a threat around the strait and hitting an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas Port that was preparing to launch a fifth drone.

A more permanent truce would allow global shipping, including an estimated 20% of the world’s oil, to restart flowing through the strait. It will also allow the region’s energy and other infrastructure to be rebuilt.

Two regional officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation, said the draft agreement includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah and a commitment not to interfere in the internal affairs of regional countries. This refers to Iran’s support for proxies, including Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza and Shiite militant groups in Iraq.

But tensions rose further in Lebanon on Thursday as Israel carried out airstrikes on the southern suburbs of the capital, Beirut, and carried out other attacks on the southern coastal city of Tyre. At least 14 people died in the country’s southern region.

The United States wants Israel to be free to respond to what it sees as Lebanese threats, but Iran has rejected the request, a regional official said. The U.S. official said the agreement would safeguard Israel’s right to act in self-defense against imminent threats.

The Strait of Hormuz will gradually reopen

The stated goals of the United States and Israel are to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, curb its missile program and end its support for armed proxies.

But Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which was open to international shipping before the war, soon became a global focus, stranding hundreds of ships carrying oil, gas, fertilizer and other supplies and sending prices soaring far beyond the region.

Regional officials said that under the impending deal, the strait would be gradually reopened at the same time as the United States ends its April 17 blockade of Iranian ports. The blockade limits Iran’s ability to transport oil and bring much-needed cash to its long-troubled economy.

A U.S. official who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity said the memo clearly states that Iran will not be able to impose tolls on the strait and must clear all mines in the waterway within 30 days.

A regional official with knowledge of the negotiations said the United States would allow Iran to sell oil through sanctions waivers. The official said talks would take place within 60 days on lifting sanctions and releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.

Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium

Iran’s nuclear program and international concerns that it may pursue nuclear weapons are a source of tension. The United States and Israel have both considered highly complex military operations Go in and take out the highly enriched uranium.

Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up the stockpile, regional officials said. An official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said whether Iran abandons the deal will depend on further negotiations within 60 days. Some of it may be diluted and the rest moved to third countries, the official said. Russia has offered to accept it.

Another U.S. official confirmed the 60-day deadline and said sanctions would not be eased if Iran did not give up its stockpiles.

Iranian spokesman Baghaei said, “The focus of the negotiations is to end the war. We will not discuss the details of the nuclear issue at this stage.”

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has 972 pounds of enriched uranium with a purity of up to 60%, just steps away from the 90% weapons-grade level.

Iran says it has “inalienable” rights to nuclear technology while insisting its program is for peaceful purposes. On Sunday, President Masoud Pezeshkian told state television they were ready to “assure the world that we are not pursuing nuclear weapons.”

seems to be missing something

“Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are going well!” Trump wrote on social media on Monday. “It’s a great deal for everyone, or no deal at all – get back to the front lines and shoot, but bigger and stronger than ever – and no one wants that!”

Despite claims of progress, several questions appear unresolved, including whether Iran can enrich uranium and to what level, and the fate of its missile program, which Israel in particular sees as a major threat.

While the United States and Israel entered the war claiming they wanted to see Iranians rise up against their government following nationwide protests earlier this year, any talk of a leadership change in Tehran appears to have ended.

As for the goals Iran has stated in past negotiations, there appears to be no mention of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region or compensation for damage caused by the war.

Superville reported from Washington, and Anna reported from Lowville, New York.

Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. all rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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