Analysis finds it will take U.S. years to replenish stockpile of advanced weapons used in Iran’s war

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. military contractors will need at least three years to replenish inventories of three critical weapons systems Used extensively in the Iran WarAccording to analysis released Wednesday, increase worries The U.S. military has limited firepower in any situation Future conflict with China.

The weapon system is Tomahawk cruise missilefor striking targets deep in enemy territory, and patriot and “THAAD” interceptor missile Defend against incoming missiles and drones.

“The United States has sufficient ammunition to deal with any eventuality in a war with Iran, but the depletion of the stockpile creates a vulnerable window for a potential conflict in the Western Pacific,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in the report. its new reportprovided to The Associated Press. “So the time it takes to rebuild those inventories has become a major issue.”

China has established goals ensure that its military is capable of taking Taiwan Force could be used if necessary by 2027, which experts say is more desirable than a strict deadline. But Chinese President Xi Jinping warned this month that if Washington mishandles its relationship with the self-ruled island, the United States and China There may eventually be conflict or even open conflict..

Washington think tank analysis factors in Republican Trump administration’s historic defense budget proposal $1.5 trillion in 2027which has significantly accelerated spending on high-end ammunition that began during the Democratic Biden administration. Although there is bipartisan agreement in Congress to increase inventories, “the issue today is not money, but time,” the report said.

“Scaling up production capabilities and building these complex systems will take time,” the report said, adding that the window of vulnerability would last “several years until inventories return to previous levels, and several more years until they reach the levels desired by war planners.”

Although the ammunition inventory is classified, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said there is enough public information in Pentagon budget materials to estimate a production timeline.

President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Peter Heggs Insisting that the United States is capable of fighting any war. They have urged defense contractors to speed up ammunition production, and Hegseth told lawmakers last month that military spending under Trump would help manufacturers double or even triple their production capacity.

Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement that the military “has everything it needs to carry out its mission when and where the president chooses.”

“We have conducted multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military has robust capabilities to protect our people and interests,” Parnell said.

Some military experts disputed this. Pentagon officials “understand the reality of our military inventories and hopefully tell someone, ‘Hey, if we go into this fight, even by the most conservative estimates, we’re going to reduce our inventories to a critical level,'” said Virginia Burger, a senior defense policy analyst at the Project on Government Oversight watchdog group and a former Marine Corps officer.

Concerns about dwindling inventories were a theme at the meeting recent congressional hearings. For Democrats, the ammunition supply is a harsh measure of the war against Iran, which Trump has launched without approval from lawmakers. Some Republicans believe the problem stems from the U.S. Sending Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine Although several U.S. allies used these systems after the Russian invasion in 2022.

The roots of the dilemma can be traced to cold warMark Cancian, a retired Navy colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), co-authored the study with Chris H. Park, a research associate.

back the fall of the soviet union Cancian said in an interview that at the end of 1991, the United States believed that future wars would be short-lived and regional, with little need for large quantities of such high-end weapons. The Pentagon ordered relatively small quantities, assuming the military wouldn’t need many. Military contractors have responded in kind, relying on relatively small manufacturing footprints to build them.

Cancian said Russia’s war with Ukraine showed that wars could be protracted and require large stockpiles of advanced weapons. Meanwhile, U.S. military strategists Wargames could lead to conflict in Western Pacific.

“Things are starting to change, but building inventory takes time,” Cancian said, adding that part of the challenge is getting up to speed on the complex supply chain and network of subcontractors that produce very novel components.

Cancian said President Joe Biden’s administration should get some credit for opening up conversations with the defense industry, pouring money into the industrial base and ramping up production. Cancian oversaw the procurement of military hardware in the Office of Management and Budget under Republican President George W. Bush and Democratic President Barack Obama.

“A lot of people in the Trump administration tend to say everything was bad before they got here, but that’s not the case,” Cancian said. “Now, the Trump administration has really increased funding.”

CSIS estimates that the United States has launched more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles against Iran, and it may take until the end of 2030 to fully replenish pre-war stockpiles.

The report states that due to smaller orders in the past, less than 200 Tomahawks are produced annually. However, manufacturer Raytheon aims to increase production capacity to more than 1,000 units per year.

Raytheon parent company RTX declined to comment on CSIS’s findings because it has not yet seen the report. But RTX noted that it would invest billions of dollars to increase production, including expanding facilities in Alabama and Arizona.

CSIS estimates that replacing as many as 290 THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), the interceptors used to shoot down incoming Iranian drones and missiles, for the much-needed air defense system could take until the end of 2029. The replenishment of more than 1,000 Patriot interceptors will be completed by mid-2029.

CSIS noted that Lockheed Martin is significantly increasing munitions production for both systems, and that THAAD deliveries have “apparently been reordered to prioritize U.S. needs over those of allies and partners.”

“The delivery of Patriot missiles creates a dilemma for the United States as it needs to replenish its own stockpiles, help Ukraine defend against Russian missile attacks, and meet the needs of the 17 other countries that use the interceptors,” the report said.

Lockheed Martin said in a statement that it will invest $9 billion through 2030 and “already have tangible results to meet growing ammunition needs, including last week’s announcement of a new facility in Alabama, as well as more than 20 other facilities across the United States.”

Meanwhile, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said a potential conflict with China “is not all doom and gloom” and that the U.S. military has recently demonstrated its capabilities against Iran, Venezuela and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

“China is deeply aware that it has no recent combat experience and performed poorly in its last war, the 1979 war against Vietnam,” the report said. “This difference in experience is likely to maintain deterrence until ammunition stocks are restored.”