Changing 3-stat reaction; Assam leaves Biswas in HimantaIt was a day full of drama. The Bharatiya Janata Party has finally succeeded in winning a state that has been almost its last frontier for the past decade, Tamil superstar Vijay has made a stunning political debut and looks set to become Tamil Nadu’s next chief minister, and the Congress has defeated the Communist Party of India in Kerala, clearing the way for a “left India”. Amid the anti-incumbency wave, Himanta Biswa Sharma stood firm and led the BJP to a majority in Assam for the first time. The NDA’s victory in tiny Puducherry may not belong to the same alliance, but it sends the message that smart politics and good alliances can help the incumbents consolidate their position. The BJP’s victory carries huge political significance.
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That’s largely down to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s continued popularity despite 12 years in power – a story of remarkable resilience in an era of soaring expectations. It reinforces the message that the party’s dominance across the country, coupled with the DMK’s defeat in Tamil Nadu, will trigger upheaval within the Indian bloc, making it an easier place for the Modi government. The Congress has started courting Vijay but at the expense of “ideological brotherhood” with the DMK. The BJP now controls the entire eastern region, with the exception of Jharkhand, where it is the main opposition party and can realistically hope to succeed in the 2029 state elections. A BJP-led Bengal can give the Center smooth sailing on issues as diverse as GST and completion of border fencing. It will force “secular” actors to re-examine their strategies as they try to reconcile the tension between the expectations of the majority who embrace Hindu themes and the need to meet Muslim needs. The mere presence of a large Muslim population does not provide a safe haven for the growth of Hindutva sentiments.
Bengal victory marks BJP’s influence beyond Hindi heartland
The importance of the battle for the World Bank transcends politics. It also marks the possibility of themes coexisting with regional characteristics without compromising their core. It also shows that the BJP’s Hindi heartland roots are no longer as tethered as before.
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Even in Kerala, the BJP managed to win three seats where it had never won before. It was also a reminder that Modi was able to break through the Governor’s resistance on the strength of his development promises, national glory and “tough security” credentials. Vijay also shattered assumptions that had become certainties due to his endurance – like the Dravidian duopoly, which had rotated offices between the DMK and AIADMK for the past 50 years.
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His predecessor, the “superstar” Rajinikanth, had the potential to challenge the establishment and was urged by his supporters to take the plunge, but he failed to muster the courage. Vijay dared to dream and was rewarded. A rising wave of disgust at corruption and crimes against Dalits and women under DMK rule brought him to the gates of Fort St. George. The DMK tried using vulgar anti-Hindi and anti-Sanathan planks. But that didn’t work, with a large number of Gen Z voters opting for the new promise: Combining freshness with time-tested techniques like women-targeted mangalsutra, Vijay managed to win over women while also depriving the DMK of support among Dalits, Christians and Muslims.
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His emergence as a stronger vector of anti-DMK sentiment also appears to have helped attract votes that would otherwise go to the AIADMK. He is about to become the first Christian chief minister of Tamil Nadu (and the fourth Christian chief minister from the south after AK Antony, YS Rajasekhara Reddy and Jagan Reddy). The loosening of the duopoly’s grip on the state could create opportunities for different actors: from Seeman to the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. In any case, Vijay did not take a tough stand against the North and the Sanatani, which opened up the possibility of a better working relationship between the Center and Chennai.
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The victory of the Congress-led alliance in Kerala is a consolation trophy for the Congress: the party desperately needs it to assert its presence. But success itself has brought with it the challenge of dealing with perceptions of rising Hindutva sentiment at a time of growing dependence on the Hindu-Muslim League and the Christian outfit Kerala Congress (Joseph). Of course, it will also have to resolve leadership issues, with VD Satheesan unlikely to abandon his claim in favor of party senior favorite KC Venugopal, who is not an MLA. For the CPM, the defeat marks not only the loss of the only state in power but also a further weakening as an electoral force. There is no doubt about the victory of the BJP in Assam. But its scale is surprising. That the Deobandi outfit Jamat-i-Ule-ma abandoned its own AIUDF’s Badruddin Ajmal to achieve this despite a decade in power and determined efforts to achieve greater Muslim integration shows the smart footwork of CM Himanta Sarma, who opposed Bengali-speaking Muslims, calling them Bangladeshi infiltrators. He succeeded in uniting non-Muslims, and his success also exposed Congress to pro-Muslim forces. This vulnerability is likely to be further exacerbated by the organization’s alliance with the IUML in Kerala and the weakening support base among Hindus in different regions.
