Assam polls: Can governance trump Himanta Sarma’s anti-incumbency

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party-led New Democratic Alliance will complete a hat-trick in the northeastern state if it wins Assam on May 4, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma being elected to a second consecutive term.The BJP formed the first government in Assam in 2016, ending the 15-year tenure of the Congress party led by stalwart Tarun Gogoi. Sarbananda Sonowal replaced him.After being re-elected in 2021, the BJP appointed Sarma as chief minister and Sonowal entered the federal cabinet.The former Congress MP joined the BJP in 2015 and held various portfolios under Sonowal’s leadership, including finance and health ministries. He leads the party in the current election campaign.Sarma campaigned from Jalubari stronghold in Kamrup metropolitan area. He has represented the district since 2001 and is currently seeking a sixth consecutive term.To prevent the National Democratic Alliance from returning to power and capitalize on a decade of opposition to the ruling alliance, the opposition parties, led by the Congress, came together under the leadership of Lok Sabha member Gaurav Gogoi (son of Tarun Gogoi, a Lok Sabha MP). He was also joined by Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi and Assam Jatiya Parishad’s Lurinjyoti Gogoi.Faced with a potential five-year incumbency, Sarma is banking on the government’s welfare delivery, particularly its flagship Orunodo programme. The scheme, with more than 2.6 million women beneficiaries receiving monthly financial assistance, has helped build a loyal base of the party’s so-called “labharthi” voters.For Sarma, the twin issues of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) remain core issues, albeit no longer in the form of mass protests. Instead, they have been absorbed into competing political narratives. The BJP has positioned its stance as protecting indigenous identity and land, a position that has been reinforced by the controversial deportation drive against “illegal Bengalis”.The BJP has turned the Northeast into a political bastion. Whether to retain Assam or lose it will be known on Monday.Exit polls predicted overwhelming support for the NDA. However, they are not always accurate.