For nearly two decades, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi have defined a football era that spanned leagues, continents and tournaments, but the stage that never brought them together for a formal match was the FIFA World Cup. They have only met twice in international competition, both in friendly matches in 2011 and 2014, and despite participating in every World Cup since 2006, Portugal and Argentina have never met in the tournament. That absence lingers quietly in the context of their rivalry, with 2026 expected to be the pair’s last World Cup, with Ronaldo turning 41 and Messi turning 39, with the possibility of a final encounter now dependent on a very specific set of results, formats and pathways in the newly expanded tournament. Before jumping into these scenarios, it’s helpful to slow down and understand the actual structure of this World Cup, as the format itself makes these possibilities more open and complex.
How a 48-team World Cup actually works
The 2026 event will be held in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the number of participating teams will be expanded from 32 to 48, which changes the entire rhythm of the competition. Now, instead of eight groups, there are twelve groups, from Group A to Group L, with each group containing four teams. Argentina is in Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan, and Portugal is in Group K with Colombia, Uzbekistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
2026 FIFA World Cup (via Getty Images)
From these twelve groups, the path forward is divided into two levels. First, the easy part: The first and second-placed teams in each group automatically qualify for the knockout rounds. There are 24 teams in total. Next is a part that has not been seen in previous World Cups. All twelve third-place teams will be compared based on points, goal difference and goals scored, with the best eight teams also qualifying. This brings the total number of teams in the knockout rounds to 32.
FIFA 2026 World Cup Group Stage/FIFA
From then on, the competition became a straight knockout, starting with the top 32, then moving on to the top 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and finally the final. A team that goes all the way will now play eight games instead of seven, reflecting the expanded structure and the championship total expanded to 104 games. This format is important because it creates multiple entry points into the knockout rounds, and this is where Ronaldo’s encounter with Messi becomes possible.
The burden of both teams until 2026
Argentina arrive here as reigning world champions after lifting the trophy in Qatar in 2022, a moment that reshapes Messi’s international legacy after years of struggling with World Cup finals and three Copa America finals before breaking through in 2021. Since then, Argentina has repeated as Copa America champions and enters 2026 with continuity, depth and a squad built around its captain. Portugal’s story is different. Ronaldo is the all-time leading scorer in men’s international football with 143 goals, has won the European Cup and two UEFA Nations League titles, but the World Cup remains out of reach. The best result of the Portuguese team in the Cristiano Ronaldo era was in 2006, when they reached the semi-finals. Since then, they have reached the top 16 twice in 2010 and 2018. They were eliminated in the group stage in 2014 and reached the quarter-finals in 2022, where they were eliminated by Morocco. Ronaldo mainly played as a substitute in the knockout rounds.
Messi and Ronaldo are expected to play in the 2026 World Cup finals, which could mark the final chapter of the greatest rivalry in football history/ (Image via Getty)
Individually, Messi has played 26 World Cup games and scored 13 goals, while Ronaldo has played 22 games and scored 8 goals. Both are expected to participate in the sixth World Cup, but Messi has not officially confirmed his participation in the World Cup. Behind all this background is a simple fact: they are now in different groups, Argentina in Group J and Portugal in Group K, meaning any games can only be played after the knockout rounds have begun.
Group Stage Expectations and Probabilities
Argentina are widely considered the favorites to top Group J, with their odds of finishing first being predicted to be around 75% to 77%, reflecting both their status as defending champions and the relative balance of the group (which also includes Austria, Algeria and Jordan). Austria is considered the main challenger and is expected to have a 20% to 22% chance of winning the group.
FILE – Argentina’s Lionel Messi lifts the trophy after winning the World Cup final football match between Argentina and France at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, Qatar, on December 18, 2022. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)
Portugal in Group K is also expected to lead the group, with the team still including Ronaldo as well as players such as Bruno Fernandez and Joao Felix. Portugal are favorites to finish top of their group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with implied odds of around 65% to 71%, according to major betting sites, although Colombia, led by Luis Dias, James Rodriguez and Davinson Sanchez as well as other key figures such as Jon Cordoba, Jefferson Lerma and Richard Rios, are seen as a real threat after a strong showing in South America’s qualifiers.
Portugal’s starting 11-man squad FIFA 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Europe/Photo: X
Bracket reality: Why they couldn’t have met sooner
Since Argentina and Portugal were both top seeds in Pot 1 during the draw, FIFA adjusted the groupings so that teams from the same pot were divided into different pathways. Simply put, this means they cannot meet in the group stages and will be separated until certain stages of the knockout stages, depending on how well they finish. Their positions in Groups J and K also put them on the crossed sides of the bracket, which is why their matchup will depend heavily on specific final positions.
Scenario 1: Both groups win, quarter-final collision
If Argentina tops Group J and Portugal tops Group K, both teams will advance to the knockout rounds and meet in the quarterfinals on July 11 in Kansas City as long as they win their round of 32 and round of 16 matches. In this case, Argentina will face the runner-up in Group H in the round of 32, and then the winner between the second-placed team in Group D and Group G in the round of 16. Portugal, by contrast, will play one of the third-placed qualifiers in the round of 32 before advancing to the round of 16 against the winner of the Group B winner’s match. Only if both men successfully survive these two knockout rounds can Ronaldo face Messi in the quarter-finals.
Scenario 2: Both teams finished second and met in the early stage of the round of 16
If both teams finish as runners-up in their respective groups, the structure would see them meet earlier and potentially play out in the Round of 16 in Arlington on July 6, again assuming both teams win their first knockout games. In this case, Argentina will face the winner of Group H in the round of 32, while Portugal will face the runners-up of Group L, which includes teams such as England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama. The key difference here is that finishing second compresses the clock, creating a pathway for the meeting to be held one round later after the initial knockout stage.
Scenario 3: The position is split, leaving only the last one
If one of the two teams wins their group and the other finishes second, they will be completely separated until the New Jersey finals on July 19. In this configuration, they are placed on either side of the knockout draw, which means they must progress in every round, including the last 32, last 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals, and not fall back before the competition can be held. It’s the longest and most demanding route, but also the most symbolic ending: a World Cup final between two players whose rivalry defined an era.
Wildcard Variable: Third Place Qualification
The expanded format creates another layer of uncertainty for the best third-place team. If Argentina or Portugal finish third but are still among the top eight third-placed teams, their exact position in the knockout rounds won’t be determined until all group games have been played, as those rankings are based on points, goal difference and goals scored in each group. This makes any meeting between Ronaldo and Messi in this scenario unpredictable, as their paths will only become clear once the group stages are over.
| Imagine | Argentina finishes | Portugal finishes | when they can meet | health status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | First place in Group J | First place in Group K | Quarterfinals (July 11, Kansas City) | Both teams must win the Round of 32 and Round of 16 |
| 2 | Second place in Group J | Second place in Group K | Round of 16 (July 6, Arlington) | Both teams must win Round of 32 games |
| 3 | first place | second place (or vice versa) | Finals (July 19, New Jersey) | Both teams must reach the final |
| 4 (wildcard) | 3rd place (but eligible) | Anywhere | uncertain | Depends on the ranking of the best third-place team and the group standings |
Why this World Cup feels different
For all the permutations and paths, the underlying reality is simple. This will likely be the last time both players share the stage at the World Cup, with the structure of the 48-team tournament making it possible but not guaranteed that they will eventually meet. Argentina will perform as expected, Portugal will qualify in a competitive group, and both teams will have to make at least one or two knockout rounds without making a mistake, depending on the route. Only then will the bracket open up in a way that allows competition to reach a stage it has been missing.
