File photo: Mossad Director David Bania
Mossad chief David Bania reportedly told the Israeli cabinet before going to war with Iran that regime change in Tehran was possible but would most likely take about a year, not just days or weeks, a recent report said.According to the Jerusalem Post, Bania presented a variety of scenarios to Israeli leaders on the eve of the war, with some suggesting months, but a one-year time frame was considered the most likely estimate.That more cautious assessment was overshadowed by recent anonymous attacks that accused him of exaggerating the likelihood of a rapid collapse of the Iranian regime, the report said.
Qualified assessment, not guaranteed prediction
The main point of the report is that Bania’s position was more qualified than some later accounts suggested. He does not see regime change as inevitable, but rather as a possibility that depends on a variety of conditions and could take quite some time, the Jerusalem Post reported. The report added that Bania is known for attaching caveats to major intelligence assessments and that any recommendations to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or U.S. officials are tightly controlled and integrated into broader government strategy.However, this contrasts with previous reports claiming that the Mossad expected a swift uprising.According to the New York Times, Baniya told Netanyahu and senior Trump administration officials in mid-January that within days of the war starting, Mossad could help spur Iran’s opposition, triggering riots and insurgent behavior that could even lead to the collapse of the government. However, the report also noted that three weeks after the war began, no such uprising had occurred, and U.S.-Israeli intelligence assessments concluded that the Iranian regime had been weakened but remained intact.The Times of Israel quoted Channel 12 as saying that Baniya assessed that overthrowing the Iranian regime would be possible if key military objectives were first achieved, including beheading the leadership, undermining regime institutions and weakening its ability to repress its citizens. But it stressed that he had also raised “disclaimers and qualifications” and noted that the situation was unstable and achieving such an outcome could take a long time.Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump initially suggested in public that military action could create the conditions for regime change, but both also said the Iranian people themselves must take action. Since then, messaging has become more restrained. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community assesses that the Iranian regime “appears to be intact but has largely degraded.”Netanyahu also stopped short of predicting an imminent collapse. He said Israel was working to “create the conditions” for the regime’s collapse, but added, “It may survive or it may not. If it survives, it will be much weaker.”
