UAE-India airfares have fallen ahead of July peak. (AP Photo)

Airline ticket prices on the main UAE-India route are showing signs of falling after weeks of sharp increases, providing some respite to Indian expatriates planning summer travel. The decline comes as airlines gradually restore capacity, increase flights and bring more seats back to the market ahead of the July-August peak travel season.According to Gulf News, fares in some sectors, especially on routes connecting the UAE and Kerala, have fallen from recent highs, although travel industry executives have warned that prices are still well above last year’s levels and may climb again as holiday demand intensifies.

Kerala route fare adjustment

Raheesh Babu, Chief Operating Officer, Musafir. com told Gulf News that as more flights resumed operations, some flight fares to Kerala had soared to around Dh3,500 to Dh3,600, but have dropped to nearly Dh2,600.He attributed the decline to improving seat availability and modest increases in airline capacity, noting that supply constraints that led to sharp increases in fares earlier this month were beginning to ease.However, industry insiders stressed that current fares are still higher compared with 2024 levels, with several July travel dates still commanding a premium.

Summer travel demand continues to push prices higher

The UAE-India corridor remains one of the busiest international aviation markets in the world, supported by strong commercial, tourist and VFR (Visiting Friends and Family) traffic.The period between June and August is traditionally the most expensive time to travel, as school holidays and family holidays trigger a surge in outbound demand from the UAE. Airlines often sell lower-fare inventory early, leaving fewer economy seats available closer to departure date.

Flight operations return to normal after regional disruption

Travel agents linked the recent fare adjustments to the gradual normalization of flight schedules following disruptions caused by regional geopolitical tensions.Zaid Ameen, owner of Go Kite Tours & Travels, said operations had been restricted during the conflict, with only a few operators keeping full itineraries.He also pointed out that there has been an increase in transport options through Muscat operated by Salam Air, which has further increased market supply.

Fare prices for some routes reduced by 300-400 dirhams

Ameen said fares on some routes had dropped by around Dh300 to Dh400 in recent weeks, adding that if flight frequencies continued to increase, fares were likely to remain relatively stable.On the Kerala flight, he noted that the airline had to reduce prices as the flights were not completely sold out. The situation has eased on routes such as Cochin and Calicut, thanks to IndiGo’s additional services and improved seat availability.He expects fares to approach normal levels over the next six weeks as more flights, including services by Air India Express, gradually resume.

Industry warns against over-interpreting short-term declines

Despite the recent easing, travel agents still believe ticket price volatility remains high. Safeer Mahmood, managing director of Smart Travels, said there was no clear sign of a continued downward trend in fares.Instead, he described the current situation as a temporary fluctuation driven by changes in inventory levels and booking patterns.Mahmood estimates that fares are still about 15% to 20% higher than last summer, citing strong seasonal demand and lower overall flight frequencies compared with previous years.

Travelers are advised to track prices closely

Industry experts say passengers may still encounter occasional bargains as fares are temporarily lowered due to flight cancellations and last-minute inventory releases.Travel agents also sometimes have access to pre-locked seats, which can be sold at a lower price than the published fare.As demand is expected to remain strong during the summer holidays, travelers are advised to monitor fares regularly and book quickly when attractive offers become available.