Resistance or destruction? What signal does AAP’s move in Kerala send to Congress in assembly polls?

New Delhi: Aam Aadmi Party doesn’t want to congress win kerala Assembly polls?Inability of Indian bloc to present united front ahead of Kerala assembly elections exposed after Arvind incident KejriwalThe Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has announced its candidate list continuously, indicating its intention to contest all 140 seats in Kerala.The southern state, recently renamed as Kerala in homage to its cultural and linguistic heritage, has become the latest battleground where AAP’s ambitions collide with the Congress.The pace of elections in Kerala has long hampered continuity, with voters largely denying incumbents a second consecutive term. This pattern puts the main opposition Congress party in a seemingly favorable position in the race for power in Thiruvananthapuram.However, AAP’s strong intervention has added a twist. Is Kejriwal’s party simply expanding its influence, or is it subtly complicating the Congress’ path to power? With limited organizational depth in the Malayalam state, the AAP may not be of major significance, but as Arvind Kejriwal and his team emerge from the shadow of the Delhi liquor case, their presence could still, if only slightly, change the political landscape in Kerala.The ruling left, which is also part of the wider opposition, remains the main rival in Congress, while the left remains the main rival in Congress. bjp 3rd behind. In this triangular contest, the AAP may not significantly weaken the Left or the BJP, but it may influence the outcome by weakening the Congress’ vote share enough to change the final verdict.Is Delhi’s revenge underway in Kerala?2025 began with a crushing defeat for the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. Earlier, reluctant allies, the United Australia Party and the Congress decided to contest separately, with the Congress, which had nothing to lose, launching a militant campaign against the ruling party led by Arvind Kejriwal.The grand old party also found an opening when the Kejriwal cabinet came under the scanner in the Delhi liquor policy case, which is being probed by agencies including the CBI and ED. Several senior AAP leaders, including Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia, faced legal troubles, leading to a phase in the government with fellow party member and loyalist Atish as chief minister.While the defeat ultimately fell to the BJP, the Congress also played an important (albeit indirect) role in preventing its India Bloc allies from securing a fourth consecutive term.The ‘vote-cutting’ factor proved crucial in several constituencies, including in New Delhi, where former chief minister Sheila Dikshit’s son Sandeep Dikshit was fielded against Kejriwal. Although he finished a distant third, the votes he garnered led to Kejriwal’s defeat and helped make the BJP’s Parvesh Verma a “giant-killer”.Hypothetically, if these votes had gone to Kejriwal, the outcome might have been different. AAP’s seat count dropped sharply from 62 to 22 seats while Congress once again failed to open its account.Despite years of political agony, the AAP and the Congress, which made huge efforts to counter the might of the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, collapsed again in the 2025 Assembly elections, reflecting a familiar pattern of competition.The AAP, which grew out of Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement in India, directly challenged the Sheila Dikshit-led government and went on to establish its dominance in Delhi, reducing the Congress party from a dominant force to complete insignificance.The Congress party, which was under the strong leadership of Sheila Dikshit for 15 years, failed to win a single seat in the last two assembly elections (2020 and 2025) and also drew blanks in three consecutive Lok Sabha polls (2014, 2019 and 2024).Just as the Congress weakened AAP’s prospects in the Delhi Assembly, AAP may now impact Congress’ chances in states like Kerala as it seeks to maintain its relevance in the national opposition space.alliance to confrontationLok Sabha allies turned into parliamentary adversaries, and the fight between estranged partners was anything but graceful.Addressing a rally, Arvind Kejriwal said without hesitation: “The problem with the Congress is its sense of entitlement. They believe that just because of their past, they have a divine right to lead the opposition, even if they have zero presence on the ground. They are not fighting the BJP; They are fighting against regional parties that actually defeated the BJP. In Delhi, the Congress is nothing more than a ‘voter’ aimed at helping the BJP. “The Congress, in turn, took advantage of the troubles over the Delhi excise policy case to deal the worst blow to the AAP.Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra led rallies across Delhi, calling Kejriwal and other AAP leaders “corrupt”. At one such rally, Rahul Gandhi said: “Kejriwal ji has been lying. The way Narendra Modi lies, Kejriwal also lies. There isn’t much difference between them. But let me tell you one thing – Kejriwal is probably more cunning and sophisticated than the Prime Minister in misleading people. “Weeks later, when a Delhi court freed Kejriwal and his colleagues in the liquor policy case, the Congress claimed it was part of the BJP’s larger strategy of “Congress-mukt Bharat”.Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera attacked the BJP, calling it “Icchadhari naag” (shapeshifting snake) and accusing it of using central institutions as political tools.Kejriwal retaliated sharply, questioning the Congress party’s claims and targeting its leadership: “Kejriwal is in jail. Is Robert Vadra in jail? Sanjay Singh is in jail. Is Rahul Gandhi in jail? Is Sonia Gandhi in jail? What is the Congress saying? Has it no shame?”Reduce Congress’s footprint?The Congress, an ancient party with roots in the independence movement, has been grappling with fragility for more than a decade.Apart from Delhi, the BJP has been losing ground in several states, allowing it to expand its dominance in national politics. This decline also opens up space for other players to challenge their position in the opposition.Among states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala that are going to polls, Kerala appears to be the one where the Congress still has a realistic chance of returning to power by ousting the Left. This makes it an important battlefield.In this context, AAP’s entry may be seen as an attempt to further weaken the Congress, creating a situation that both strives for relevance and limits Congress’ growth.Kejriwal’s push in Kerala and candidates across constituencies could help position the AAP as a more important national player. The state offers a relatively low-risk opportunity, allowing the AAP to compete without significant risk while maintaining control of the BJP and Congress.Repeating Gujarat in Kerala?Arvind Kejriwal established a strong political foothold in Delhi and Punjab, successfully running a full-fledged government in Punjab under the leadership of party colleague Bhagwant Mann, while also governing the Union Territory of Delhi for more than a decade and wielding significant influence in the Parliament.However, the Aam Aadmi Party’s journey is not limited to Delhi. His steady and often indirect expansion has made Kejriwal an emerging alternative in national politics. He has also made inroads into Gujarat, long considered a Narendra Modi bastion.In its debut in Gujarat, the AAP secured over 13% of the votes, exerting a significant influence on the Congress. In the 2017 parliamentary elections, the Congress party won 42.2% of the votes and launched a strong confrontation with the Bharatiya Janata Party after Modi turned to national politics. However, the entry of AAP in 2022 upset the balance, reducing the Congress’ vote share to 27.7%.While the AAP made an impressive debut with around 13% of the vote, the BJP’s vote share increased only slightly – from around 50% to 53%.A similar pattern is likely to play out in Kerala, where the AAP may not emerge as a dominant force but can influence the outcome by cutting into the Congress’ vote share, potentially benefiting the incumbent Left – as it did in Gujarat.Increasing AAP’s footprint?Since its birth out of the Anna movement in 2013, AAP has been continuously striving to expand its reach in India. So why not Kerala?For Arvind Kejriwal, ambitions have never been limited to Delhi. He catapulted onto the national stage to take on Narendra Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections after toppling the long-standing dominance of Sheila Dikshit. The race in Varanasi may have ended in defeat, but it marked the arrival of Kejriwal as the main challenger.He secured over 20% of the votes, enough to push the Varanasi Congress to third place. Its candidate Ajay Rai received only about 7% support.The foray into Kerala is therefore less an anomaly than a continuation of that journey, an attempt to test the party’s influence in the far south.Apart from its strongholds in Delhi and Punjab, the AAP has steadily ventured into new political arenas.In Gujarat, it emerged as a significant player with over 13% of the vote, largely at the expense of the Congress. In Goa, it received nearly 7% of the vote and won two seats, once again cutting into the Congress party’s base.The party even had a presence in Jammu and Kashmir, where Mehraj Malik won from Doda.From the northernmost tip of J&K to AAP’s renewed interest in the southern fringes of Kerala.Rahul, Priyanka and Tharoor’s KeralaKejriwal’s entry into Kerala has symbolic significance, especially for the Congress, which has emerged as an important political anchor in recent years. In times of crisis, two scions of the Gandhi family, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, turned to Kerala.In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi lost his Amity seat, Wayanad gave him a landslide victory. In 2024, he returned to Wayanad again and won easily, but he ultimately chose to retain Ray Bareilly.“I was a stranger to you, but you believed in me. You embraced me with unbridled love and affection. No matter what political formation you support, no matter what community you come from, what religion you follow or what language you speak,” Rahul said.“I am saddened, but I take comfort in the fact that my sister Priyanka will be there to represent you. I am confident that if you decide to give her a chance, she will serve brilliantly as your Member of Parliament. My core commitment to you and the people of Raebareli is that we will fight and defeat the hatred and violence that is spreading in this country,” he added.Rahul Gandhi walked away from Wayanad to express his gratitude to voters and pave the way for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s maiden election from the same constituency. Her subsequent landslide victory at the secondment election further cemented the family’s ties to the country.After the win, Priyanka said: “I am grateful to the people of Wayanad for giving me the honor of representing them. It is a testament to the hard work my brother has worked there, the love they have for him and the trust they have placed in me. I consider it a great honor and I will fully respect it. “Apart from the Gandhi family, Kerala is also home to one of the Congress’s most famous national faces, Shashi Tharoor, a three-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram.Against this backdrop, Kejriwal’s push in Kerala is not just another electoral experiment, a move that could disrupt the established equations and complicate the political calculations of entrenched players in the state.Kejriwal vs Rahul?After the formation of the India Bloc, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led New Democratic Alliance retained power at the center and Rahul Gandhi became the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha.Despite Rahul’s elevation to the position, doubts remain about his leadership ambitions. Within the opposition bloc, divisions began to emerge, with AAP’s positions often appearing inconsistent with his.The AAP has repeatedly tried to project Kejriwal as a potential national challenger to Narendra Modi, subtly sidelining the prospect of Rahul Gandhi.With the Congress suffering repeated electoral setbacks and the AAP aggressively expanding, competition within the opposition may no longer be just against the BJP, but also among its own key players