Japan has deployed domestically produced Type 12 long-range surface-to-ship missiles near the East China Sea, a move that analysts say may be interpreted by Beijing as crossing a “strategic threshold.”The deployment is expected to have a major impact on regional deterrence and China’s operational planning in the East China Sea and around Taiwan.Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara confirmed on Monday that the upgraded missiles will be deployed at the Kengun military camp in Kumamoto Prefecture by the end of March. Military vehicles carrying the first batch of missile launchers were reportedly spotted arriving at the base after midnight, according to SGMP.Previously, the Japanese Ministry of Defense decided to advance the missile deployment schedule by one year in 2024. Rising military tensions with Beijing in the East China Sea near Taiwan have prompted Tokyo to speed up its defense capabilities.The Type 12 missile, developed and produced by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, has a range increased to about 1,000 kilometers (originally 200 kilometers), allowing Japan to cover almost the entire East China Sea from Kyushu to coastal cities in mainland China. The missile is designed to deter Chinese naval vessels in the event of a potential conflict.China has harshly criticized the deployment. According to the “SGMP” report, Jiang Bin, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, said that Japan’s “right-wing forces” have been “accelerating re-militarization.”He added that Tokyo’s deployment of long-range offensive weapons with ranges well beyond Japanese territory “completely strips away the pretense of pure defense policy and self-defense.” Jiang Zemin further said: “This fully demonstrates that Japan’s ‘new militarism’ is no longer a dangerous tendency, but a blatant and realistic threat, causing serious damage to regional peace and security.”Experts noted the strategic implications of the deployment. John Bradford, executive director of the Asia-Pacific Research Council in Yokosuka and a former U.S. Navy officer, said that Japan’s deployment of Type 12 anti-ship missiles in Kumamoto is a “new upgrade” that ensures it can threaten Chinese naval ships throughout the East China Sea. He explained: “This effort reflects China’s longstanding deployment of so-called air denial weapons that can target foreign ships entering the East China Sea. This will enhance deterrence because any naval vessel entering the East China Sea will know that it may become a target for China or Japan. ‘Mutual sea denial’ will make both sides hesitant to use force because they know they will face the challenge of gaining sea control of this strategic buffer zone.”“Retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Ray Powell, director of the Sealight Maritime Transparency Initiative, said the deployment “plugs in” to the growing Allied missile network along the “first island chain.” This complicates Beijing’s military calculations and enhances Japan’s role in alliance burden-sharing, he added. “In terms of burden sharing, it significantly increases Japan’s value to the alliance. It shifts from relying heavily on the United States for long-range strike operations to exerting its own credible deterrence,” Powell said. “Tokyo is taking on the kind of operational risks and responsibilities that Washington has always wanted to see.“The missile deployment also comes amid an ongoing dispute with Beijing. Tensions increased after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November that Japan could take military action if Taiwan was attacked, triggering outcry and economic retaliation from Beijing. Takaichi promised to speed up Japan’s military buildup. The defense budget has reached 2% of GDP, two months ahead of schedule, and the cabinet is pushing to revise major security and defense policies to strengthen independent defense against China, North Korea and Russia.Last month, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said Japan would deploy Type 03 medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni Island, the westernmost island in eastern Taiwan, by 2031.Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, described the Type 12 deployment as “one of the most significant shifts in Japan’s postwar defense posture.” She said: “Deploying Type 12 missiles will increase the cost of attacking Japanese territory and complicate the PLA’s plans. Beijing must now prepare for possible Japanese retaliation before launching operations in the East China Sea or around Taiwan, unlike before when Tokyo lacked long-range missiles capable of reaching PLA bases or coastal staging areas.” Given the ability of the Type 12 missile to strike mainland China, China may view its deployment as a direct military threat. China will see this as a dramatic increase in Japan’s ability to put Chinese military bases and logistics centers at risk. This undermines China’s confidence in its anti-access/area-denial posture… In China’s view, Japan has crossed a strategic threshold. “Odegaard added that Beijing could interpret the deployment as preparation for a potential conflict over Taiwan, fueling suspicions about Japan’s intentions and efforts to limit China’s freedom of movement. “This could reinforce China’s narrative that Japan’s behavior is provocative and opaque, increases the risk of miscalculation, intensifies the arms race in Northeast Asia, undermines regional stability and militarizes the East China Sea,” she said.

What is Japan’s Type 12 missile?

Long-range anti-ship missile designed for long-range strikeThe upgraded Type 12 anti-ship missile is a weapon developed domestically by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and is designed to enable Japan to hit enemy naval targets at longer distances. Unlike the original Type-12 system used by the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, which had a range of about 200 kilometers, the upgraded version is expected to have a range of about 900 kilometers or even longer, although the specific range has not been officially disclosed. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the new missiles also feature a low-observability design designed to reduce the chance of detection by enemy radar.

Multi-platform deployment to expand strike coverage

The upgraded Type 12 missile is designed to be deployed on multiple launch platforms, including land-based launchers, ships and aircraft, thereby significantly expanding the operational flexibility of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). Once operational, the missile will enable Japanese forces to conduct long-range maritime strike operations, targeting enemy vessels from safer distances. This would significantly expand Japan’s maritime strike capabilities beyond its existing anti-ship missiles, such as the ASM-2 (Type 93).

part of Japan’s evolving counterattack strategy

The upgraded missiles are part of Japan’s broader “standoff” counterattack capabilities, designed to deter adversaries by striking enemy forces before they reach Japanese territory. According to an analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the system is part of a broader missile modernization effort that includes hypersonic weapons and long-range cruise missiles. These capabilities are being developed in conjunction with expanded space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems to help locate and track targets remotely.